Key Messages:
- China’s anti-dumping investigation against the Australian barley industry is continuing and the potential outcomes remain uncertain.
- The investigation commenced on 19 November, 2018, with the final decision due prior to 19 November, 2019. However if required, the Chinese Government can extend the investigation deadline for 6 months to 19 May, 2020.
- This uncertainty may have an ongoing impact on barley values while the investigation progresses and Australian growers should be aware of the market risk.
Background
- The People’s Republic of China initiated an anti-dumping investigation regarding Australian barley in November 2018.
- The World Trade Organisation definition of injurious dumping is when exports are sold at a price lower than the exporting country’s domestic market, and/or lower than production costs which results in ‘injury’ to the importing country’s domestic production.
- The Australian grain industry has co-operated in full with the Chinese Government during the course of the investigation and has vigorously defended the position that dumping has not occurred.
- Although the Australian grain industry is confident that dumping has not occurred, the likely outcome of this anti-dumping investigation is unknown at this point in time.
- Possible outcomes could include the imposition of provisional import measures on Australian barley exports to China. These measures have a similar impact as tariffs in that they artificially increase the price of Australian barley in China.
- China has been Australia’s largest barley export market and Australia is the largest supplier of barley to China. This investigation has created considerable uncertainty within the Australian grain market, since November 2018, that has resulted in downward pressure on Australian barley prices.
- Growers should also be aware of the broad range of factors that have and may further impact barley prices over the coming season. While the issues surrounding the China export market are uncertain, other factors would include Australian crop conditions and issues such as global weather and plantings for grain crops in other countries.
- The Australian grain industry working group; the Grains Industry Market Access Forum, Australian Grain Exporters Council, GrainGrowers, Grain Producers Australia and Grain Trade Australia fully respect China’s right to conduct these investigations under the trade based rules of the World Trade Organisation.
Further information:
Luke Mathews
GrainGrowers General Manager Policy and Research
ua.moc.sreworgniarg@swehtam.ekuL