GrainGrowers today launched a comprehensive report shedding light on the significant implications of the upcoming United States presidential election for Australian grain growers.
With both Presidential candidates—Donald Trump and Kamala Harris—indicating a departure from traditional trade liberalisation policies, the report, Navigating Uncertainty: What the United States Election Means for Australia's Grain Industry addresses concerns about increasing trade protectionism and geopolitical tensions.
While the United States represents a relatively small market for Australian grain exports, as the world's largest economy, its trade policies directly influence global trade dynamics. The report underscores the importance of maintaining an open and rules-based trading system for Australia’s export-oriented grain industry, which relies heavily on global markets. Despite differing political philosophies, both candidates signal a move towards protectionist policies that could exacerbate US-China tensions, intensify trends toward friend-shoring, and further fragment the rules-based global trading order.
GrainGrowers CEO Shona Gawel said the report was a timely reminder that the Australian grain growers highly vulnerable to shifting international trade dynamics.
“With approximately 65-75% of Australian grain exported annually, the sector is heavily exposed to international trade dynamics, with external shocks and events beyond its control.”
“While the US election may be taking place half a world away at a time when GrainGrowers members are flat out harvesting, it is vitally important that potential changes in the trade landscape are recognised and fully considered.”
The report highlights the worrying rise in global trade protectionism, a trend that has accelerated in recent years due to events such as the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine conflict.
This trend is expected to continue under both US presidential candidates, with the imposition of tariffs and other trade barriers likely to escalate. The WTO Director General, Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala has warned that Trump’s proposed 10% blanket tariff on imports could spark a “free-for-all” in global trade, leading to retaliatory measures from other countries. Such protectionist policies threaten to disrupt international trade flows and place additional pressure on Australian grain exports, which are already exposed to the impacts of global market volatility.
In response to rising trade risks, GrainGrowers is calling on the Australian Government to take proactive measures, particularly by diversifying trade partnerships and deepening engagement with Southeast Asia. As the report highlights, Southeast Asia is a vital region for Australian grain exports and presents significant growth opportunities.
Ms Gawel said a proactive approach was essential to safeguard Australia’s grain industry against future global trade disruptions.
"We need sustained investment in trade diversification programs and stronger partnerships with Southeast Asia to ensure our industry’s resilience in the face of rising global uncertainty."
The report also calls for increased funding to support Australia’s Agricultural Counsellor Network, which plays a crucial role in expanding market access and addressing non-tariff barriers in key Southeast Asian markets.
Copies of the report are available from the GrainGrowers website.
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